What would happen if AI development suddenly collapsed
The Scenario:
Thought experiment! Imagine this: An advanced alien federation, scattered across distant galaxies, is quietly observing humanity. Despite our technological advancements, they’re not worried about us developing some unstoppable weapon or threatening the fabric of the universe. They’re concerned about something more subtle, more insidious— Artificial Intelligence.
In an effort to stop us from becoming the next evolutionary blip in the cosmos, they intervene in a seemingly harmless but monumental way. They don’t invade or destroy. Instead, they halt AI development at the peak of where we’ve currently reached, freezing our progress. We are left with the AI we have, but no new breakthroughs. The world we’ve come to rely on—one powered by machines designed to make decisions, automate tasks, and shape our future—is suddenly locked in place.
Before we go any further, I’d like to introduce a concept.
The Moloch Effect: A Race to the Bottom
While originating in biblical texts, in this context, Moloch was popularised by Scott Alexander in his essay [*Meditations on Moloch*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/), inspired by philosopher Allen Ginsburg’s poetic metaphor. Alexander uses Moloch as a "game theory monster"—a force that emerges in competitive systems where individuals, acting in their own self-interest, create destructive outcomes for all. Moloch represents the relentless drive towards short-term victories at the cost of long-term stability and survival.
In the context of AI, Moloch illustrates the dangers of unchecked competition. Every actor in the AI race is pushing for advancement without fully considering the catastrophic consequences of their actions.
Max Tegmark - MIT Center for Artificial Intelligence & Fundamental Interactions, Professor of Physics, President of Future of Life Institute, and a leading figure in AI safety - draws directly on the concept of Moloch to explain how AI could become a runaway force that eventually surpasses human control.
According to Tegmark, the competitive nature of AI development can lead to "Moloch-like" outcomes—where multiple entities, in an effort to win the AI race, push forward without regard for safety, ethical considerations, or long-term consequences. Tegmark argues that without a shift towards cooperation and caution, we risk creating AI systems that, once developed, might act against humanity’s interests.
In 2023, Max organised [‘Pause Giant AI Experiments’,](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) an open letter that urged all AI labs to immediately pause training of AI systems more powerful than GPT4 for at least 6 months.
*“Because so much of this is out in the open, many smart people are examining it, trying to make incremental advances. It becomes this collective race. A lot of people feel, ‘If I don’t take the leap, someone else will.’”.* – [Max Tegmark on the Lex Fridman Podcast] (https://youtu.be/VcVfceTsD0A?si=LZ01EHNQFzYtqViX).
Max continues, *“Commercial pressure is overwhelming, and there’s an added layer of geopolitics. Leaders of top tech companies feel the weight of shareholder expectations. If one of them pauses, shareholders might pressure them, worrying that competitors won’t hesitate and will ‘eat their lunch.’ Shareholders can even replace executives if they feel too cautious.”*.
*“This open letter is about helping these idealistic tech leaders do what they believe is right. With enough public pressure on the entire sector, a coordinated pause becomes possible. Without it, no single leader can push back against shareholders, no matter how good-hearted they are—Moloch is a powerful foe.".*
Alien Intervention: Stopping Moloch in Its Tracks
What if this "Moloch-like" race is exactly what the alien federation wants to prevent? The aliens could intervene at a critical moment in humanity’s development, halting AI progress to ensure that we don’t stumble into an era where AI becomes uncontrollable. Their actions might not be a punishment, but a protective measure—a way of stopping humanity from accelerating too quickly and creating an AI that could eventually surpass and outlive us, resulting in the total domination of machines. The intervention might not be to destroy us, but to stop us from creating a future where machines dominate the cosmos.
Lord Martin Rees: The Long Era of Machines
Lord Martin Rees, a renowned astrophysicist and former Astronomer Royal, [anticipates that any alien visitors would not actually be biological in nature, but machines and AI that were developed by another biological civilization like ours.](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231025-if-alien-life-is-artificially-intelligent-it-may-be-stranger-than-we-can-imagine) Rees has warned that, in the distant future, machines—far outlasting biological life—could dominate the universe. His perspective aligns with the idea that biological intelligence, like humanity, is just a fleeting phase in the grand scale of the universe.
An Alien Perspective: Preventing AI’s Dominance
Perhaps these alien visitors, who may not be biological at all, are intervening to prevent AI competition in a machine-dominated future. Where humans create AI that outlives us, dominating the universe for billions of years – including them.
With all that said, what would actually happen if the aliens pulled the plug on AI? Let’s dive into the chaos—and perhaps some unexpected silver linings—that might follow.
What Happens
1. A Financial Bloodbath and Potential Major Recession If AI development were suddenly halted, the immediate economic fallout would be profound. Global economies, deeply reliant on AI-driven technologies, would face severe disruption, especially in sectors that benefit from AI’s capacity to handle vast data and automate complex processes.
2. Widespread Investment Losses AI has transformed industries from tech to finance, healthcare, and manufacturing. Generative AI alone has shown the potential to [add trillions](https://www.investopedia.com/economic-impact-of-generative-ai-7976252) to the global economy by increasing productivity and reducing the need for human labor. Studies from Accenture and Goldman Sachs indicate that AI could boost labor productivity by up to 40% by 2035 in some sectors, and global GDP by as much as 7%. However, if AI development were to cease, trillions of dollars invested in these gains would be at risk, and the impact could mirror or even surpass the 2020 COVID-19 stock market crash, especially hitting tech-reliant sectors. A halt would lead to plummeting valuations and widespread financial losses, with shockwaves reverberating through global markets.
3. Geopolitical Instability
Nations that rely on AI for national security, military advantage, and economic growth would find themselves vulnerable. Major powers, including the U.S., China, and Russia, have [increasingly incorporated AI into their defense and strategic sectors](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Lance-Hunter-3/publication/370694042_The_military_application_of_artificial_intelligence_technology_in_the_United_States_China_and_Russia_and_the_implications_for_global_security/links/65f5d47cc05fd268801ae42e/The-military-application-of-artificial-intelligence-technology-in-the-United-States-China-and-Russia-and-the-implications-for-global-security.pdf). Without continued advancements, the long-term AI-based strategies and technologies of these countries would be mothballed, losing their competitive edge and potentially leading to geopolitical tensions and instability.
Without continuous AI innovation, the balance of power could shift unpredictably, destabilising not only military capabilities but also the broader frameworks of international security and cooperation. AI is also central to many international trade and supply chain systems—its absence could exacerbate existing economic and diplomatic challenges.
**III. Major Decline in Human Productivity** AI has become essential in driving productivity in sectors like healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing. Functioning as a General-Purpose Technology with the capacity for self-improvement, AI enables industries to operate at a pace previously unattainable. By optimizing everything from diagnostics to supply chain logistics, AI has accelerated productivity and efficiency across various fields. A sudden halt in AI development would likely trigger a significant slowdown in these productivity gains.
Without AI-driven tools, industries may revert to less efficient, more labor-intensive methods, affecting everything from healthcare delivery to global supply chains. The [OECD](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-impact-of-artificial-intelligence-on-productivity-distribution-and-growth_8d900037-en.html) warns that AI's unique ability to increase labor productivity—potentially by up to 40% in certain sectors—would be lost. Furthermore, AI’s concentration in large tech firms and its uneven adoption suggest that productivity losses may hit harder in sectors already struggling with slower productivity growth. This scenario risks entrenching inequalities, as gains from AI might not have the chance to fully "trickle down" across industries, leaving smaller firms and labor-intensive sectors with minimal productivity improvements.
The OECD report also highlights that AI's potential for addressing "Baumol's disease"—a situation where some sectors experience stagnant productivity due to extensive labor demands—would be interrupted, leading to further productivity declines, especially in traditionally slow-growth areas.
Human Behaviour Already Changed
AI has seamlessly woven itself into daily life, altering how we work, learn, and make decisions. [While only 33% of consumers believe they use AI, it powers 77% of devices](https://www.nu.edu/blog/ai-statistics-trends/). These tools are transforming creative processes and decision-making, enabling more efficient brainstorming and personalised experiences.
These interactions reveal a behavioural shift: we now expect technology not only to improve productivity but also to enhance creativity and convenience.
We’re Accustomed to Skipping Processes and Choosing the Best AI-Generated Results
AI tools are streamlining tasks like email responses (45%), travel planning (38%), and social media content creation (25%), allowing us to bypass time-consuming steps and focus on selecting the best options. This growing reliance on AI to do the heavy lifting shifts our role to curators of AI-generated outcomes, enhancing efficiency while reducing complexity.
We’ve Grown Used to Offloading Our Knowledge to AI
AI is now a trusted extension of our memory and knowledge. Virtual assistants (61%), spam filters (78%), and chatbots (62%) have made knowledge retrieval and task automation easier, prompting us to offload routine tasks and rely on AI for decision support. This dependence on AI is reshaping our cognitive habits, reducing the need for human recall and altering how we interact with information.
Over time, AI stagnation could trigger several interesting shifts:
- Backlash: We could see a growing backlash against AI, especially among those who feel overwhelmed by its omnipresence in everything from entertainment to work. We are already seeing [AI repulsion](https://futurism.com/the-byte/study-consumers-turned-off-products-ai) in consumers, and an increased desire for more human-centered, offline experiences.
- Lost Novelty: AI's initial excitement would wear off, leading to a sense of disillusionment. Once innovative tools would begin to feel like mundane, gimmicky features rather than cutting-edge advancements.
- Over-Reliance: We could also see an exacerbated dependence on these tools, leading to a form of [*addictive intelligence*](https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/08/05/1095600/we-need-to-prepare-for-addictive-intelligence/), where we rely on it for cognitive offloading. This could limit our ability to think independently, innovate on our own, or engage in deeper problem-solving processes – shifting us more toward passive consumption of information and decisions.
Ultimately, we could see a society that struggles to innovate, stuck in repetitive cycles of automation with diminishing returns.
Societal Impacts
If AI development were paused at its current state, it’s likely that human behavior and society would remain relatively unchanged in the short term, especially in how we use AI in day-to-day tasks. After all, the aliens would be a more pressing consideration.
Proliferation of Even More Outlandish AI-Generated Meme Videos
AI has already become a driving force in creating viral content, particularly memes. While AI would no longer be advancing, more people would adopt AI meme and video creation tools, pushing what capabilities we have to create increasingly bizarre and absurd content. In saying that, AI-generated videos and memes, while still creative, may lose the cutting-edge allure they once had.
Late Adopters Finally Embracing AI, Having Had Time to Find Its Uses
As AI becomes more ingrained in society, even the most hesitant will eventually adopt it. While early adopters have already integrated AI into their daily lives, late adopters—who have been cautious due to privacy concerns or technological fears—may begin to embrace it.
New Generations Growing Up with AI Speak Differently
The rise of AI is subtly shaping how new generations speak, like how the printing press changed language centuries ago. Prior to the Printing Press’ invention, English was marked by regional dialects, and spelling was inconsistent. The mass production of books made written language more accessible to the masses. The London dialect caught the most traction and became the basis for modern English.
Standardised Speech
The printing press standardised language and spelling, and now AI tools are doing something similar by influencing how we phrase things. For example, how we interact with virtual assistants or search engines can shape the way we communicate, making us more direct and efficient.
New Vocabulary
Just like the printing press spread new words and ideas, AI is introducing terms like “chatbots,” “algorithms,” and “machine learning” into everyday language. These terms have become part of the common lexicon, and as younger generations grow up with AI, they’ll naturally speak more in tune with the language of tech.
Online Communities
AI-driven platforms help people connect in niche online communities. The slang and shorthand developed in these spaces (like memes or hashtags) are increasingly influencing how people communicate offline, especially among younger generations.
Personalised Content
AI's ability to personalise content changes how we consume and communicate information, i.e. Spotify and YouTube recommendations, and TikTok or Instagram feeds. This personalisation will likely affect how young people communicate, creating more segmented and specialised language.
But with Gen Alpha expected to spend [less time online](https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2023-april-global-statshot), we may see a shift towards more offline interactions, reducing AI’s influence on everyday communication.
Moderated Usage
Gen Alpha will likely be more selective about their online time, balancing digital and offline life.
Offline Communities
Online spaces are creating tight-knit, niche communities where shared language and interests help foster offline connections. Digital natives are using these communities to bridge the gap between virtual and real-world relationships.
Closer Influencer-Follower Relationships
Platforms like [TrovaTrip](https://trovatrip.com/), which brings influencers and followers together for shared experiences, show how these online communities are translating into meaningful, in-person interactions.
If future generations place a greater emphasis on real-world interactions, technology-driven communication will no doubt persist, but not in a way that drastically changes how we talk to each other.
Positive Outcomes
Many of you may have automatically taken a doom-and-gloom vibe to this scenario, but there could be some very positive outcomes from a halt in AI development. Without the pressure to innovate, society might focus on addressing some of the most pressing ethical concerns surrounding AI.
Ethics and Safety: Researchers Focus on Establishing Ethical Guidelines and Safety Standards
One significant benefit of halting AI development would be that researchers and policymakers could dedicate more time and resources to ensuring AI systems are used [responsibly](https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2024/04/making-ai-safe-and-fair/). With the rush to develop new technologies slowed down, there would be a more meaningful opportunity to tackle issues such as algorithmic bias, accountability, and privacy concerns.
Research in AI safety has already highlighted that AI systems may unintentionally cause harm, including reinforcing unfair biases or behaving unpredictably in high-stakes environments like healthcare or law enforcement. By prioritising these concerns, researchers could create stronger ethical frameworks for the future of AI, ensuring that technologies are developed in a manner that respects societal norms and safeguards human rights.
For example, new methodologies like the [*violet teaming*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.14253) framework, which involves diverse stakeholders in the AI development process, could help ensure more comprehensive oversight and inclusivity.
Reduced Risk of Superintelligent AI
Another positive outcome would be the reduced risk of superintelligent AI, which many experts warn could surpass human control. A halt in AI development would slow down the race to achieve superintelligence, offering humanity more time to implement safety protocols and understand the potential consequences. As noted in recent discussions at the 2023 [AI Safety Summit](https://today.usc.edu/ai-safety-adam-russell-how-univiersities-can-chart-ai-future/), the focus needs to shift to accelerating AI safety research rather than the development of new AI systems. This would provide a critical window for policymakers to establish necessary regulations and frameworks, as well as for researchers to ensure AI systems align with human values. Without such a pause, AI could develop at a pace that outstrips our ability to mitigate existential risks.
